Overview Of The Molybdenum Metal Market

The global molybdenum market experienced a volatile rebound in January. China, as the world's largest market in terms of molybdenum reserves, production, and consumption, saw its demand recovery become a key engine driving global price increases. According to industry monitoring data, by late January, Chinese molybdenum concentrate prices had risen slightly, increasing by $2.75 per ton-degree. Different grades of ore formed differentiated pricing ranges, generally falling between $542 and $564 per ton-degree. High-grade ore (above 55%) saw its price further focus on $560-$564 per ton-degree due to resource scarcity, highlighting the premium advantage of high-quality resources.

The ferromolybdenum market also showed a strong trend, with domestic retail cash prices (including tax) climbing to $35,300-$36,100 per ton, and acceptance prices also rising accordingly to $35,600-$36,400 per ton. With the Spring Festival approaching, domestic steel mills have significantly increased their bidding activity, with the bidding price range expanding to $35,000-$36,000 per ton. The price difference has widened compared to the previous month. This phenomenon reflects an escalating game between supply and demand in the pre-holiday market – steel mills are eager to replenish their inventories to lock in raw material costs, while holders of inventory are maintaining their prices due to tight spot supply.

The strong performance of the domestic market continues to be transmitted to the international market, further strengthening the correlation between global molybdenum prices. Port molybdenum oxide prices have remained stable in the $23.50-$23.55 range, while European ferromolybdenum prices have maintained narrow fluctuations at high levels, without showing any deviation from the Chinese market's trend, confirming China's dominant pricing position in the global molybdenum industry chain.

The core supporting this round of price rebound is the persistently tight supply and demand pattern in the global molybdenum market. The rigid constraints on the supply side have never eased. Global molybdenum resources are highly concentrated in China, the United States, and Peru, which together account for 85% of global reserves, with China holding the largest share at 39.33%. New capacity releases are proceeding slowly. Large-scale mines such as the Jinzhai Shapinggou mine in Anhui are not expected to reach large-scale production until after 2027. Currently, the increase in international supply relies solely on the ramp-up of individual projects, resulting in weak overall growth. More concerning is the passive reduction in molybdenum production in some overseas producing regions due to factors such as declining copper ore grades (molybdenum is mostly a by-product), community conflicts, and strikes, further exacerbating the supply shortage.

On the demand side, a dual-engine pattern of traditional sectors and emerging industries is emerging, with a historic restructuring of the demand structure. The global steel industry is upgrading towards high-end products, and the demand for molybdenum-containing alloy steel is steadily increasing in high-end equipment manufacturing such as wind turbine bearings and nuclear power pressure vessels. From January to April 2025, the tender volume of ferromolybdenum from major domestic steel mills reached 50,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.17%, confirming the rigid demand in traditional sectors. The explosive growth in the new energy sector has become a key driver of incremental demand. Demand for high-purity molybdenum sputtering targets for photovoltaic coatings surged by 40% year-on-year. Each GW of photovoltaic installation requires approximately 5,000 tons of molybdenum. The application rate of molybdenum-containing steel in lightweight components for new energy vehicles is also continuously increasing, raising the share of demand in emerging sectors from less than 10% five years ago to 30%.

The seasonal characteristic of concentrated stockpiling before the Chinese New Year adds another variable to the current tight balance. With the Lunar New Year approaching, downstream steel mills and processing enterprises have begun their restocking cycle, with some smelting companies already having orders scheduled until the beginning of next month, further tightening spot market resources. Survey data show that while domestic molybdenum concentrate plant inventories increased slightly by 9.4% to 5,800 tons compared to last week, they remain at historically low levels. Traders, anticipating a positive market outlook after the holiday, have limited selling pressure and a strong willingness to support prices. This seasonal demand fluctuation provides short-term support for global molybdenum prices.

Amidst price fluctuations and the interplay of supply and demand, the global molybdenum market exhibits a distinctly cautious and wait-and-see attitude, heavily reliant on the pace of change in the Chinese market, resulting in volatile price swings. All links in the industry chain are adopting a conservative approach. Mining companies, supported by costs, are unwilling to sell at low prices; traders maintain low inventory levels to avoid price volatility risks; and steel mills are repeatedly weighing restocking needs against cost pressures. Actual transaction activity has failed to expand effectively, and the market continues to tug at the crossroads between cost floor and demand uncertainty.

The core focus of the short-term market is clearly on the completion of pre-Chinese New Year stockpiling and the trend of steel mill bidding prices. If downstream purchasing demand is concentrated before the holiday, coupled with the support of tight spot resources, molybdenum prices are expected to continue their rebound. However, once the phased restocking is completed and the pace of demand slows, the technical correction pressure from the previous rapid price increases may emerge. This high dependence on short-term variables further reinforces the market's wait-and-see sentiment.

Considering both supply and demand fundamentals and market sentiment, the global molybdenum market is likely to maintain a pattern of "tight supply-demand balance and volatile prices with a slightly upward bias" before the Spring Festival. Rigid constraints on the supply side, seasonal demand for Chinese New Year stockpiling, and continuously rising mining costs collectively constitute the core support for price increases-the unit mining cost of molybdenum is projected to increase by 75% year-on-year in 2025, and increased investment in environmental compliance further compresses the profit margins of midstream smelting companies, thus solidifying the price floor.

Risk factors should not be ignored. Phased changes in demand rhythm, geopolitical disturbances in overseas markets, and macroeconomic uncertainties could all trigger price fluctuations. However, from a medium- to long-term perspective, the supply-demand gap in the global molybdenum market will continue to widen. On the one hand, new capacity release lags behind demand growth, with global new molybdenum metal production totaling less than 20,000 tons in 2025-2026; on the other hand, the incremental growth brought about by demand structure upgrades is highly sustainable, with demand in the traditional stainless steel sector remaining stable and rising, and demand in high-end sectors such as new energy and semiconductors continuing to break through. Under this supply-demand mismatch, the central price of molybdenum is expected to gradually shift upward, and the industry is ushering in structural development opportunities.