Recently, there was sudden news that from January 28 to 29, 2026, the Rubaya coltan mining area in North Kivu Province in eastern Congo (Kinshasa) was affected by continuous heavy rainfall, causing large-scale landslides and causing the collapse of many manual mining roadways. At present, the mining area involved has completely stopped mining operations, and the surrounding residents have completed emergency relocation and resettlement.
As a key hub of the global tantalum raw material supply chain, the Rubaya mining area accounts for more than 15% of the global total supply of tantalum mines. Tantalum is an indispensable core raw material for the manufacture of electronic terminal products such as smartphones and computers. The mining disaster and subsequent shutdown have had a direct impact on the supply side of the global tantalum industry chain.
Driven by the news of the suspension of production in the Rubaya mining area, bullish expectations in the global tantalum market have rapidly heated up. Downstream manufacturing companies and traders have concentrated on releasing demand for stockpiling and stocking, driving product prices in all links of the tantalum industry chain to rise simultaneously. As of the publication of this article, the latest quotations and increases in each link are as follows:
Mine end: Supply contraction superimposed on hoarding tide, quotations rose sharply
The collapse of mining areas and the suspension of production have directly led to a substantial reduction in the global supply of tantalum ore, and the spot circulation has tightened rapidly. At the same time, affected by the bullish sentiment in the market, downstream electronics manufacturing companies and traders have concentrated on hoarding goods and locking prices, which has further exacerbated the imbalance between supply and demand in the circulation link, and jointly promoted the increase in quotations at the mine end. At present, the CIF price of tantalum ore in China has reached 119-120 US dollars/lb, an increase of 27.12% from the beginning of December last year.
Basic raw materials: The quotation of tantalum pentoxide has soared, and the reluctance of enterprises to sell has become prominent
The online market price of tantalum pentoxide with a purity of 99.5% has climbed to 2,775 yuan/kg, an increase of 43.41%. According to the survey data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network (SMM), some domestic smelting enterprises are reluctant to sell, and the quotation of this grade of tantalum pentoxide has been raised to 3,000 yuan/kg, an increase of 55.03% from the previous period.
Smelting and processing end: the quotation system is chaotic, and high-level transactions are frequent
At present, the quotations in the global tantalum market are in a chaotic situation, high-level transaction cases continue to emerge, and the game between the price transmission effect of the industrial chain and market transactions has further intensified. According to SMM, there is an actual transaction record of 5,500 yuan/kg for tantalum ingots with a purity of 99.95%.
Industry analysts believe that the impact of the suspension of production in the Rubaya mining area is far from over, and it may push domestic tantalum prices into a channel of continuous and rapid rise. This upward trend is not caused by short-term market sentiment hype, but the inevitable result of the continuous deterioration of the contradiction between supply and demand.
The core driving logic is that most domestic tantalum smelting enterprises were highly dependent on the stable supply of raw materials in the Rubaya mining area before. The sudden suspension of production in the mining area directly led to a shortage of raw material stocks. Some small and medium-sized smelting enterprises even faced the risk of raw material supply cuts and had to take measures to reduce production capacity or suspend production. On the demand side, the production demand of terminal industries such as smartphones, computers, and new energy automotive electronics has shown rigid characteristics, and has not declined significantly due to rising raw material prices; In addition, downstream enterprises and traders are generally worried about the further shortage of tantalum raw material supply in the future, and the demand for stockpiling and stocking continues to be released. Under the interweaving of multiple factors, the imbalance between supply and demand in the tantalum market is difficult to improve in the short term. The price of tantalum is expected to continue to rise, and it is expected to break through the previous high point and enter a new round of price peak range.
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